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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still